Indonesia’s Nickel Downstreaming: What a Decade of Industrial Policy Actually Produced
Robert Sterling – AsiaPresswire – Indonesia banned the export of unprocessed nickel ore in January 2020, pulling forward a deadline that had originally been set for 2022. Five years on, it is the most consequential industrial policy experiment in Southeast Asia, and the clearest test anywhere of whether a commodity-producing country can force its way up the value chain by legislating against its own exports. The answer is genuinely mixed, and the mix is more instructive than either the celebratory or the dismissive version of the story. Indonesia did build a processing industry that did not exist. It also created chronic global oversupply, locked itself into a technology and capital structure it does not control, and discovered that banning an export is much easier than capturing the margin that sits at the end of the chain. This piece is about what the policy actually built, what it cost, where the money actually goes, and what a company deciding whether to commit capit...