Mexico Is Ageing on an Income It Cannot Retire On, and the Budget Already Shows It
Why a fertility rate of 1.2 and a pension bill above 6% of GDP measure the same problem, and the two indicators that could prove this wrong AsiaPresswire – Mexico’s fertility rate was 1.9 children per woman in 2019. In 2024 it was 1.2. Replacement is 2.1. In five years the country moved from a fertility profile that roughly holds a population steady to one where each generation is 43% smaller than the one before it, and it did so at a income level where the state has not finished building the systems that older people need. That is the whole argument, and it can be falsified in two places. Either fertility recovers toward replacement, or the formal labour market expands fast enough to fund the pension promises already written. If neither happens by 2028, the arithmetic below is not a forecast, it is a schedule. The Number That Turned The 2025 inter-census survey, reported by INEGI and relayed through Mexican statistical coverage in 2025-26, put the population at 130.4 m...